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	<title>Commodity Futures Trading &#187; betting</title>
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		<title>Triangle Formations In Forex Trading (Part II)</title>
		<link>http://www.myfuturesblog.com/triangle-formations-in-forex-trading-part-ii/</link>
		<comments>http://www.myfuturesblog.com/triangle-formations-in-forex-trading-part-ii/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sat, 21 Nov 2009 12:51:55 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Ahmad Hassam</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Currency Trading]]></category>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.myfuturesblog.com/?p=750</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[What is the crowd psychology behind a descending triangle? Every time the currency price goes down to a certain level that forms the support there are buyers who want to hold that level stubbornly for their own reasons. Buyers thus push the price up each time the support level is tested. Spotting a descending triangle in a downtrend signals the downside breakout of the support level.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>What is the crowd psychology behind a descending triangle? Every time the currency price goes down to a certain level that forms the support there are buyers who want to hold that level stubbornly for their own reasons. Buyers thus push the price up each time the support level is tested. Spotting a descending triangle in a downtrend signals the downside breakout of the support level. </p>
<p>Thus when the price bounces off the support level, the bears take the opportunity to short again. Sellers are quite anxious to sell as they feel that the currency price should fall over time.</p>
<p>As with an ascending triangle, bulls and bears face a skirmish with both camps not feeling confident of the next market move. Spotting a descending triangle should allow you to be prepared for a downside breakout from the support level especially if it is a down trend.  </p>
<p>When the support level is broken many of those long positions which have been placed above that level soon get stopped out. Prices tend to break in the middle or the final third part of the triangle formation. </p>
<p>It tends to give off even more bearish vibes than if it is formed during an uptrend if the descending triangle is formed during an existing downtrend. Unless you have reversal signals in the form of technicals or turn around of the market sentiment, you should always assume the continuation of the prevailing trend.  </p>
<p>However, a descending triangle should not be considered to be the final word on impending downside breakout. With that said, prices also sometimes breakout from above the descending triangle successfully in a burst of bullish momentum.</p>
<p>Symmetrical Triangles: There are no horizontal lines in symmetrical triangles. This differentiates it from the ascending and the descending triangles. A symmetrical triangle consists of two converging trendlines that join a series of lower highs and higher lows. A symmetrical triangle has some resemblance to a wedge pattern.</p>
<p>The lower highs reflect the mildly bearish conviction of the sellers as they are willing to accept less and less of the price over time. The higher lows are formed when buyers of the currency pair are willing to pay a bit more to get a piece of action.  </p>
<p>A symmetrical triangle tends to be less reliable as compared to an ascending or descending triangle. There is no way to predict the future breakout direction until one of the symmetrical triangle lines is penetrated. As with the other sloping triangles, breakouts usually occur in the middle or the final third of the triangle. </p>
<p>When trading triangle breakouts, you should always consider other pieces of information so that you can better pinpoint a higher probability trade set up. Besides the triangle formation, decreased volatility can also be detected with the exponential moving averages and the Bollinger bands.</p>
<p>Mr. Ahmad Hassam is a Harvard University Graduate. He is interested in day trading stocks and currencies. Know These <a href="http://forex-or-stocks.blogspot.com/2009/07/forex-charts.html" onclick="pageTracker._trackPageview('/outgoing/forex-or-stocks.blogspot.com/2009/07/forex-charts.html?referer=');">Forex Charts</a>. Learn <a href="http://forex-or-stocks.blogspot.com/" onclick="pageTracker._trackPageview('/outgoing/forex-or-stocks.blogspot.com/?referer=');">Forex Trading</a>!</p>
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		<title>Triangle Formations In Forex Trading (Part I)</title>
		<link>http://www.myfuturesblog.com/triangle-formations-in-forex-trading-part-i/</link>
		<comments>http://www.myfuturesblog.com/triangle-formations-in-forex-trading-part-i/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 20 Nov 2009 19:39:40 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Ahmad Hassam</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Currency Trading]]></category>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.myfuturesblog.com/?p=747</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Triangle formations appear relatively common in charts. Triangles are one of the best depictions of decreasing price volatility in the currency price charts. Through triangle formations you can ride on a potentially high momentum move that is likely to occur after a period of decreasing volatility.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Triangle formations appear relatively common in charts. Triangles are one of the best depictions of decreasing price volatility in the currency price charts. Through triangle formations you can ride on a potentially high momentum move that is likely to occur after a period of decreasing volatility.</p>
<p>A high probability trade is in sight when the technicals are coupled with the current market sentiment when a particular type of triangle has been identified by the trader. All triangles show decreasing price volatility in action.  </p>
<p>Triangles are basically continuation patterns. But they can also be reversal patterns. This depends on the different types of triangles and whether they occur in an uptrend or a downtrend. Triangles are also known as Wedges. There are basically three types of triangles: 1) Ascending, 2) Descending and 3) Symmetrical. </p>
<p>Ascending Triangle:  It is basically a bullish signal when you see an ascending triangle on the chart. An ascending triangle can be easily identified by its upward sloping trendline. This upward sloping trendline creates the lower boundary of the ascending triangle. An ascending triangle can be either a continuation or reversal pattern.</p>
<p>The upper boundary is roughly horizontal and should connect at least two price points. The upper boundary represents the resistance level. The crowd psychology behind the ascending triangle is this that every time the currency price goes up to the resistance level; there is sellers in the market who push the price down.</p>
<p>When the prices retreat from their high and are on the way down, there are buyers who believe very strongly that the currency price should rise based on their own reasons. The buyers thus bid the prices higher than the previous low forming the upward slope of the triangle. </p>
<p>When these two lines, one sloping and the other horizontal converge at one point the triangle is formed. The appearance of an ascending triangle should prepare you for an upside breakout from the resistance. Breakouts tend to occur in the middle or the third of the triangle formation measuring from the start of the triangle to the tip. </p>
<p>The general guideline is this that when you see an ascending triangle during an uptrend, it is seen as an uptrend continuation pattern. But if it formed during an existing downtrend, it acts as a bullish reversal pattern. </p>
<p>Descending Triangles: A descending triangle works the opposite of an ascending triangle. It is viewed as a bearish formation even though it can be either a continuation or reversal pattern. </p>
<p>A descending triangle can be identified by the downward slope of the trendline which is formed by connecting the lower price highs. This downward sloping trendline forms the upper boundary of the triangle.  The horizontal lower boundary of the triangle represents the support level and it is formed by connecting at least two price points.</p>
<p>Mr. Ahmad Hassam is a Harvard University Graduate. He is interested in day trading stocks and currencies. Know These <a href="http://forex-or-stocks.blogspot.com/2009/07/forex-charts.html" onclick="pageTracker._trackPageview('/outgoing/forex-or-stocks.blogspot.com/2009/07/forex-charts.html?referer=');">Forex Charts</a>. Learn <a href="http://forex-or-stocks.blogspot.com/" onclick="pageTracker._trackPageview('/outgoing/forex-or-stocks.blogspot.com/?referer=');">Forex Trading</a>!</p>
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		<title>Decreased Volatility Breakout (Part III)</title>
		<link>http://www.myfuturesblog.com/decreased-volatility-breakout-part-iii/</link>
		<comments>http://www.myfuturesblog.com/decreased-volatility-breakout-part-iii/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 19 Nov 2009 18:26:04 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Ahmad Hassam</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Currency Trading]]></category>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.myfuturesblog.com/?p=752</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[When you have identified the triangle formation on either the daily or weekly chart, get ready for a breakout. Each triangle type has its own directional bias. When you trade triangle breakouts, ignore any first breakout attempts whether it is to the upside or the downside. There can be three possibilities when you try to trade the decreased volatility breakout strategy.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>When you have identified the triangle formation on either the daily or weekly chart, get ready for a breakout. Each triangle type has its own directional bias. When you trade triangle breakouts, ignore any first breakout attempts whether it is to the upside or the downside. There can be three possibilities when you try to trade the decreased volatility breakout strategy.</p>
<p>Possibility No 1: You should not forget to ignore the first breakout. Suppose the second breakout attempt is in the upside direction for an ascending triangle and it is in the downside direction for the descending triangle. In other words, the second breakout attempt is in the direction expected of the triangle type. This breakout could signal either the continuation of the existing trend or the trend reversal. </p>
<p>In case of an ascending triangle, place a stop buy order at least 10 pips above the horizontal resistance level to capture the potential upside breakout. You should make sure each side of the triangle gets touched two times at least. Set profit target according to your time frame. Place a stop loss order 10 pips below the horizontal level of the triangle to protect against false breakout.</p>
<p>Place a stop sell order 10 pips below the horizontal support level to capture the potential downside breakout for a descending triangle. Again make sure the triangle is touched two times before the breakout. Place a stop loss order 10 pips above the horizontal support level.</p>
<p>Possible Case No 2: The second breakout is to the upside in case of the descending triangle. Similarly it is in the downside in case of an ascending triangle. Again ignore the first breakout attempt. In other words, the second breakout attempt is in the opposite direction of the expected triangle type breakout direction.</p>
<p>Cut the position size to half for this trade in order to reduce risk in case of an ascending triangle since the breakout direction is opposite to the most expected direction. Set stop sell order at least 10 pips below the upward sloping trendline in order to capture the expected downside breakout. Place the stop loss 10 pips below the breakout point. Ignore the first breakout attempt and make sure the triangle is touched at least two times. Place take profit in accordance to your time frame.</p>
<p>Place a stop buy entry order at least 10 pips above the downward sloping trendline in order to capture the potential upside breakout in case of a descending triangle. Set your profit target in accordance with your time frame. Place stop loss 10 pips below the breaking point. Again reduce the position size to half in order to reduce risk.</p>
<p>Possible Case No 3: The decreased volatility breakout strategy works better when it is implemented on a daily or weekly chart. Dont use intraday charts on this strategy. You must have observed that we havent talked about the symmetrical triangle case yet. Now, there is an equal possibility of upside as well as the downside breakout in case of symmetrical triangles. Place stop buy entry order or the stop sell entry order 10 pips above the downward sloping trendline or 10 pips below the upward sloping trendline. Similarly set your stop loss orders. Just follow similar guidelines as given for the ascending and the descending triangle.</p>
<p>Mr. Ahmad Hassam is a Harvard University Graduate. He is interested in day trading stocks and currencies. Develop your own <a href="http://forex-or-stocks.blogspot.com/2009/05/forex-trading-system.html" onclick="pageTracker._trackPageview('/outgoing/forex-or-stocks.blogspot.com/2009/05/forex-trading-system.html?referer=');">Forex Trading System</a>. Learn <a href="http://forex-or-stocks.blogspot.com/" onclick="pageTracker._trackPageview('/outgoing/forex-or-stocks.blogspot.com/?referer=');">Forex Trading </a>!</p>
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		<title>Decreased Volatility Breakout (Part II)</title>
		<link>http://www.myfuturesblog.com/decreased-volatility-breakout-part-ii/</link>
		<comments>http://www.myfuturesblog.com/decreased-volatility-breakout-part-ii/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 19 Nov 2009 10:21:36 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Ahmad Hassam</dc:creator>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.myfuturesblog.com/?p=732</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Third Stage-Aging Trend: Aging trend is the period of consolidation as the trend comes to maturity. This is the period where lot of profit taking will take place. As the momentum of the trend exhausts itself, volatility tends to decrease at this stage of the trend.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Third Stage-Aging Trend: Aging trend is the period of consolidation as the trend comes to maturity. This is the period where lot of profit taking will take place. As the momentum of the trend exhausts itself, volatility tends to decrease at this stage of the trend. </p>
<p>Both the bulls and the bears are hesitant to make daring moves at this stage of the trend. Experienced traders now know that the trend has aged and it is the best time to get out of the trend. They try to get out of their trades at this stage of the trend by closing their positions. This satisfies the appetites of inexperienced traders as they consolidate their positions by taking on the positions abandoned by the experienced traders.</p>
<p>This is the period of consolidation and the prices tend to stay calm during this period. Currency prices have moved by a large amount in the previous period of high volatility. The trend takes a short break and the volatility is low during this stage of the trend.</p>
<p>Fourth Stage-End of Trend: This is the time when the prevailing trend ends.  After some new information is revealed about a currency that changes the opinion of the crowd, the trend reverses itself.  This is the last stage of the trend. As the market players tend to absorb the information, this results in the rapid adjustment of prices within a short time.</p>
<p>Many stops will get triggered during this stage of the trend. Especially if they have been caught on the wrong side of the market, traders become desperate to get out of their positions. Most know that the trend has come to an end. The best way to preserve their profits is to get out of the trend as early as possible. Experienced traders had already gotten out of the trend during the aging stage of the trend. Most of the traders who are trying to get out now are inexperienced traders.</p>
<p>There is a sharp follow through of the prices in the reversed direction during this stage of the trend. Now you know and understand that within a trend, currency prices can experience decreased volatility followed by increased volatility as the crowd psychology keeps on changing. </p>
<p>You must know that sudden release of a breaking economic or geopolitical news can cause a lot of volatility in the forex market. Traders with open positions during this low period of volatility are the most vulnerable to unanticipated news. This volatility continues as long as the news is not absorbed by the market. Decreased volatility can be found during trending or ranging phases.</p>
<p>When the market shift from high volatility to low volatility or vice versa, this time can be used to profit from the change in volatility. During this time gains can be made from the unsuspecting players and this is known as the Decreased Volatility Breakout Strategy. Deceased volatility provides an excellent opportunity to traders to prepare and profit from an imminent change from low to high volatility.</p>
<p>How do you measure that the change in volatility? There are several technical indicators that can help you visualize the volatility in the currency prices. The success of this strategy lies in measuring the volatility of the forex market correctly. There are various ways to do that.</p>
<p>You can use triangle patterns as one of the best indicators of decreasing price volatility in the currency price charts. Combine the triangle patterns with technical indicators to confirm or deny decreasing price volatility. Two of the most useful indicators that can help you measure the volatility of the currency prices are: 1) Moving Averages and 2) Bollinger Bands.</p>
<p>You can take advantage of the decreasing price volatility in the forex market through identifying the triangle formations. When a particular type of triangle has been identified by the trader, a high probability trade may be in sight. All triangles show decreasing price volatility in the forex market.</p>
<p>Mr. Ahmad Hassam has done Masters from Harvard University. He is interested in day trading stocks and currencies. Get Netpicks <a href="http://forex-or-stocks.blogspot.com/2009/04/forex-signals.html" onclick="pageTracker._trackPageview('/outgoing/forex-or-stocks.blogspot.com/2009/04/forex-signals.html?referer=');">Forex Signals</a> Free. Learn <a href="http://forex-or-stocks.blogspot.com/" onclick="pageTracker._trackPageview('/outgoing/forex-or-stocks.blogspot.com/?referer=');">Forex Trading</a>!</p>
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